Research and Commentary

Although global growth declined in Q1, as anticipated in our Q1 2019 Outlook, risk assets continued their December 2018 romp as a result of an apparent de-escalation of U.S.-Sino trade tensions and a decidedly dovish pivot by G10 Central banks (See Table One). Some US...

Frontier markets slumped in line with other non-dollar denominated markets in 2018; though outside of Argentina, frontier markets as a whole outperformed even the U.S. market. In our annual outlook we first look back to grade our calls from last year (spoiler: very...

Each year we begin our Q1 market outlook by holding ourselves to account for the results of the previous year’s macro strategy calls. We then give a detailed overview of what we see as the chief headwinds…

Following the imposition of a second round of tariffs on Chinese goods and China's concomitant imposition of retaliatory tariffs, we are - by nearly any reasonable definition of a trade war - in the heart of one at this time. There is good reason to be concerned for...

At its half-way mark, 2018 has been a tough year to make money. Investors have lost money on US investment grade bonds, on emerging debt, on US Treasuries, on European bonds, and on pretty much every major global equity market. Towards the end of the second quarter,...

So far, three of the four main themes for 2018 that we shared in January's report - more aggressive Fed rate hikes, mean reversion of low vol, and geopolitical risks from Trump's foreign and trade policy - appear on track and our Q1 positioning was accretive. On our...