Research and Commentary
FIS Group Archive | A Clear PerspectiveAbout Global Market Outlook Reports
About Global Market Outlook Reports
Our CIO, Tina Byles Williams, publishes our market outlook on a quarterly basis, based on research that examines market conditions over a three- to six-month period. These quarterly analyses serve as key inputs to our fund construction process, which incorporates strategic tilts to the market segments we believe will outperform over a six- to 12-month time frame. For global equity portfolios, these tilts incorporate regional, sector, and capitalization strata as well as investment process and style factors. For U.S. equity portfolios, tilts include sector, capitalization strata, investment process, and/or style factors.
Our objective is to construct a portfolio of “best in class” investments with weightings consistent with our overall investment strategy.
FIS Group Global Market Outlook Reports
The Precariat Are Still Mad! Real Talk on Immigration – Part II
This is the second of a three-part series on the two issues that led to 2024’s anti-incumbent party backlash. This paper evaluates salient macroeconomic, demographic, and social factors that have or should inform immigration policy, as well as the policy solutions put forward by the incoming administration to address unauthorized workers in America.
Laboring Under Pressure: Are Labor Supply Trends Breeding Long-Term Stagflationary Conditions?
As risk-on traders take a victory lap amid surging equity markets and now renewed monetary policy accommodation, the expectations for a soft landing in the U.S. economy now form the base case scenario for a preponderance of U.S. investors.
Yielding to Temptation: Pigs Get Fat, Hogs Get Slaughtered: Q3 2024 Fixed Income Update
As we approach the end of 2024, market volatility persists, with the market narrative frequently shifting in response to new economic data releases. But what does this mean for fixed income markets and portfolio decisions in the fourth quarter of 2024 and beyond?
Navigating Market Crosscurrents: Systematic Global Equities Q3 2024 Update
Market narratives have shifted significantly this year—from excitement surrounding artificial intelligence (AI) to apprehensions about big tech expenditure, and from recession worries to confidence in the resilience of the U.S. economy
What? Me Worry? Geopolitics in the Age of Fiscal Largesse
The summer of 2024 threatens to ignite transnational conflict with an unprecedented array of flashpoints never seen in the modern world.
AI’s Power Surge: Systematic Global Equities Q2 2024 Update
In this update, we begin by reviewing the state of the economy as we enter the second half of the year. We then pivot to discussing the potential impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on the Utilities sector and the performance of the Technology sector, driven by ongoing AI trends.
Market Insights Alert
Papers: FIS Group Proprietary Research
What is the most likely source and impact of the next downturn on asset prices?
As a backdrop to our portfolio derisking recommendations, we evaluate the macro background, asset return sensitivities and market responses during economic downturns over the last 30 years.
Battening Down The Hatches Part Two
View PDF version Battening Down The Hatches Part Two Part 2: How Should Investors Derisk?In Part 1 of this series, we posited that the next recession could take two possible forms:A traditional cyclical downturn as decelerating industrial production infects the...
Will Rising Populism = Stagflation?
#derisking #asset allocation #equities #bonds #geopolitical #negative yields #yield curve # stagflation # inflation # stock and bond correlation # populism #income inequality #Brexit #Donald Trump Populism is on the rise and it has historically led to increased...
Stagflation: A Lower Probability, but More Worrisome, Recession Scenario
Read our blog post here: #derisking #asset allocation #equities #bonds #geopolitical #negative yields #yield curve # stagflation # inflation # stock and bond correlation # populism Stagflation would most likely be prompted by a negative supply shock caused by either...
Negative Bond Yields Could Suggest Two Opposing Conclusions and Asset Allocations
#derisking #assetallocation #equities #bonds #geopolitcal #negative yields #yield curve #cyclically adjusted earnings The world faces an economic meltdown, or There is a buying panic in safe assets and thus a buying opportunity in risk assets. For allocators, if the...
Slowing Global Growth and Heightened Geopolitical Uncertainty Are Prompting Allocators to Reduce Their Public Equity Exposure
The dynamics that warrant reduction in equity risk exposures include: Late cycle dynamics leading to marked global growth slowdown Bearish signals from the bond market More constrained reflationary policies from China that will be a less potent for jump-starting...
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