Charles Curry Jr and Noel McElreath, Author at Xponance | Asset Management and Investment

Fixed Income Market Year in Review and 2026 Outlook

Charles Curry Jr and Noel McElreath — Tue, 27 Jan 2026 14:34:39 +0000

In the wake of a particularly robust year for fixed income returns across sectors—with notably little differentiation between them—it is instructive to examine return patterns over the prior decade.

The post Fixed Income Market Year in Review and 2026 Outlook appeared first on Xponance | Asset Management and Investment.

Spreads Say ‘Go’—The Economy Says ‘No’

Charles Curry Jr and Noel McElreath — Wed, 22 Oct 2025 14:08:16 +0000

As we enter the home stretch of 2025, we are struck by the current state of valuations in the fixed income markets. We are particularly struck by the divergence between broad market valuations and the growing weakness in various economic sectors.

The post Spreads Say ‘Go’—The Economy Says ‘No’ appeared first on Xponance | Asset Management and Investment.

U.S. Fixed Income: Q2 2025 Update

Charles Curry Jr and Noel McElreath — Fri, 25 Jul 2025 14:42:51 +0000

Despite the relative calm in markets, Q2 2025 was undeniably a roller coaster. The quarter opened with volatility fueled by “Liberation Day” tariffs and closed on a more composed financial note—though uncertainty around international trade policy remains unresolved.

The post U.S. Fixed Income: Q2 2025 Update appeared first on Xponance | Asset Management and Investment.

There’s a Pony in Here Somewhere: Q1 2025 Fixed Income Update

Charles Curry Jr and Noel McElreath — Wed, 23 Apr 2025 14:18:41 +0000

As we enter the second quarter of 2025, there is much to consider for fixed income markets and the broader economy.

The post There’s a Pony in Here Somewhere: Q1 2025 Fixed Income Update appeared first on Xponance | Asset Management and Investment.

The Captain Has Elected to Keep the Fasten Seatbelt Sign Illuminated: Q4 2024 Fixed Income Update

Charles Curry Jr and Noel McElreath — Wed, 15 Jan 2025 20:32:12 +0000

Given the substantial price action in rate markets, we consider what outcomes the market is currently pricing, the risks to this “consensus” view, and what we think will or will not occur as the new administration begins its term.

The post The Captain Has Elected to Keep the Fasten Seatbelt Sign Illuminated: Q4 2024 Fixed Income Update appeared first on Xponance | Asset Management and Investment.

Yielding to Temptation: Pigs Get Fat, Hogs Get Slaughtered: Q3 2024 Fixed Income Update

Charles Curry Jr and Noel McElreath — Tue, 29 Oct 2024 13:24:46 +0000

As we approach the end of 2024, market volatility persists, with the market narrative frequently shifting in response to new economic data releases. But what does this mean for fixed income markets and portfolio decisions in the fourth quarter of 2024 and beyond?

The post Yielding to Temptation: Pigs Get Fat, Hogs Get Slaughtered: Q3 2024 Fixed Income Update appeared first on Xponance | Asset Management and Investment.

Navigating the Economic Landscape in Mid-2024: The Only Certainty is Uncertainty: Q2 2024 Fixed Income Update

Charles Curry Jr and Noel McElreath — Thu, 25 Jul 2024 15:22:43 +0000

As we reach the midpoint of 2024, the economy grapples with familiar question that has persisted over the past couple of years. When will the substantial increase in interest rates significantly impact economic conditions?

The post Navigating the Economic Landscape in Mid-2024: The Only Certainty is Uncertainty: Q2 2024 Fixed Income Update appeared first on Xponance | Asset Management and Investment.

Shifting Market Narratives Forecast Smooth Sailing Despite Gathering Storm Clouds: Q1 2024 Fixed Income Update

Charles Curry Jr and Noel McElreath — Wed, 24 Apr 2024 19:34:05 +0000

As we close the books on the first quarter of 2024, we are once again struck by the contradiction between careful data analysis and changing narratives regarding market direction.

The post Shifting Market Narratives Forecast Smooth Sailing Despite Gathering Storm Clouds: Q1 2024 Fixed Income Update appeared first on Xponance | Asset Management and Investment.

U.S. Fixed Income: Q4 2023 Update

Charles Curry Jr and Noel McElreath — Mon, 29 Jan 2024 19:24:21 +0000

The 4th quarter Treasury and spread rally rescued the broad fixed income market from another year of negative or barely positive (depending on sector) returns. In traditional bond market fashion, however, we find much to worry about with stretched valuations in most of the spread sectors and an uncertain path forward for the economy and interest rates.

The post U.S. Fixed Income: Q4 2023 Update appeared first on Xponance | Asset Management and Investment.

U.S. Fixed Income: Q3 2023 Update

Charles Curry Jr and Noel McElreath — Fri, 27 Oct 2023 17:29:06 +0000

In this quarter’s update, we begin by looking at interest rates at the very broadest levels, i.e. Treasury markets and Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) actions. We then take stock of the fixed income landscape, looking at current market metrics against a historical backdrop.

The post U.S. Fixed Income: Q3 2023 Update appeared first on Xponance | Asset Management and Investment.