Signals & Shields: Fixed Income Strategies for a World in Flux
As we enter the second quarter of 2026, geopolitical conditions have shifted meaningfully since our last quarterly review.
Fixed Income Market Year in Review and 2026 Outlook
In the wake of a particularly robust year for fixed income returns across sectors—with notably little differentiation between them—it is instructive to examine return patterns over the prior decade.
Spreads Say ‘Go’—The Economy Says ‘No’
As we enter the home stretch of 2025, we are struck by the current state of valuations in the fixed income markets. We are particularly struck by the divergence between broad market valuations and the growing weakness in various economic sectors.
U.S. Fixed Income: Q2 2025 Update
Despite the relative calm in markets, Q2 2025 was undeniably a roller coaster. The quarter opened with volatility fueled by “Liberation Day” tariffs and closed on a more composed financial note—though uncertainty around international trade policy remains unresolved.
There’s a Pony in Here Somewhere: Q1 2025 Fixed Income Update
As we enter the second quarter of 2025, there is much to consider for fixed income markets and the broader economy.
The Captain Has Elected to Keep the Fasten Seatbelt Sign Illuminated: Q4 2024 Fixed Income Update
Given the substantial price action in rate markets, we consider what outcomes the market is currently pricing, the risks to this “consensus” view, and what we think will or will not occur as the new administration begins its term.
Yielding to Temptation: Pigs Get Fat, Hogs Get Slaughtered: Q3 2024 Fixed Income Update
As we approach the end of 2024, market volatility persists, with the market narrative frequently shifting in response to new economic data releases. But what does this mean for fixed income markets and portfolio decisions in the fourth quarter of 2024 and beyond?
Navigating the Economic Landscape in Mid-2024: The Only Certainty is Uncertainty: Q2 2024 Fixed Income Update
As we reach the midpoint of 2024, the economy grapples with familiar question that has persisted over the past couple of years. When will the substantial increase in interest rates significantly impact economic conditions?
Shifting Market Narratives Forecast Smooth Sailing Despite Gathering Storm Clouds: Q1 2024 Fixed Income Update
As we close the books on the first quarter of 2024, we are once again struck by the contradiction between careful data analysis and changing narratives regarding market direction.
U.S. Fixed Income: Q4 2023 Update
The 4th quarter Treasury and spread rally rescued the broad fixed income market from another year of negative or barely positive (depending on sector) returns. In traditional bond market fashion, however, we find much to worry about with stretched valuations in most of the spread sectors and an uncertain path forward for the economy and interest rates.