In this research note, we decompose 2Q26 fixed income returns, examine how AI-related corporate issuance is changing fixed income indices, offer our initial assessment of new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, and discuss our outlook and portfolio positioning for the remainder of the year.
As we enter the second quarter of 2026, geopolitical conditions have shifted meaningfully since our last quarterly review.
In the wake of a particularly robust year for fixed income returns across sectors—with notably little differentiation between them—it is instructive to examine return patterns over the prior decade.
As we enter the home stretch of 2025, we are struck by the current state of valuations in the fixed income markets. We are particularly struck by the divergence between broad market valuations and the growing weakness in various economic sectors.
Despite the relative calm in markets, Q2 2025 was undeniably a roller coaster. The quarter opened with volatility fueled by “Liberation Day” tariffs and closed on a more composed financial note—though uncertainty around international trade policy remains unresolved.
