As 2023 drew to a close, the financial markets began to manifest the early signs of a soft-landing scenario, marked by a robust rally in equity markets in the fourth quarter, showcasing double-digit gains. This period was characterized by broadening of market strength, with notable outperformance by small-cap stocks, heavily shorted names, lower-quality companies, unprofitable tech, and a mix of long-duration, meme, cyclical, and value stocks.
This article offers an incisive look into the factor vetting process, crucial for developing effective stock selection models in finance. It highlights the importance of distinguishing robust factors from mere statistical noise, minimizing multicollinearity, and preventing overfitting to enhance model performance.
In this quarter’s update, we begin by looking at interest rates at the very broadest levels, i.e. Treasury markets and Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) actions. We then take stock of the fixed income landscape, looking at current market metrics against a historical backdrop.
In recent years, the investment landscape has been significantly influenced by unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimuli, leading investors to focus on changes in inflation. But the front lines for significant government and central banks’ war against inflation have significantly diverged.
The key question going into the final quarter of 2023 and glancing towards 2024, is whether U.S. consumers, that account for roughly two-thirds of its total activity, will continue to keep the economy afloat.
Already responsible for an estimated $5 billion in stimulative consumer spending – the equivalent of the entire annual earnings of Starbucks, American Airlines, or FedEx – the Taylor Swift ‘Eras’ Tour is doing more than its part to save the global economy. However, the economic phenomenon being dubbed ‘Swiftonomics’ will forsake China, as the pop legend’s tour plays four dates in Japan and a record six dates in Singapore, but not in the world’s second largest economy.