In this update, we begin by reviewing the state of the economy as we enter the second half of the year. We then pivot to discussing the potential impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on the Utilities sector and the performance of the Technology sector, driven by ongoing AI trends.
As we enter the second quarter of the year, market participants appear to be performing a balancing act on a tightrope amidst the crosscurrents of the macroeconomic data flow.
This post builds on the analysis of the 2022 rebalance, examining the S&P 500 Value Index’s December 15, 2023 rebalance to assess trends and methodologies. High turnover and major sector and risk factor exposure shifts can impact both passive and active strategies, potentially increasing costs and requiring careful risk management.
As 2023 drew to a close, the financial markets began to manifest the early signs of a soft-landing scenario, marked by a robust rally in equity markets in the fourth quarter, showcasing double-digit gains. This period was characterized by broadening of market strength, with notable outperformance by small-cap stocks, heavily shorted names, lower-quality companies, unprofitable tech, and a mix of long-duration, meme, cyclical, and value stocks.
The key question going into the final quarter of 2023 and glancing towards 2024, is whether U.S. consumers, that account for roughly two-thirds of its total activity, will continue to keep the economy afloat.