The Price of Distrust ─ Part 2: The Costs of Political Interference at the Fed

45 years of de facto Fed independence appears increasingly at risk. President Trump has already installed one Fed Governor, is attempting (possibly illegally) to dismiss another, and has triggered market speculation about his ability or willingness to even dismiss the Chairman. What does this mean for markets?

Too Good to Be True: The Failure of Defensive Managers During Recent Inflationary Shocks

Too Good to Be True: The Failure of Defensive Managers During Recent Inflationary Shocks

The failure of the returns-based approach, along with some interesting dynamics observed in factor contributions, opens an extremely interesting avenue for future analysis. What role did the macroeconomic regime (inflation, top line growth, and interest rates) play in the “defensiveness” of strategies, and what can be done to avoid misclassifying strategies during sharp regime changes?

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U.S. Fixed Income: Q4 2023 Update

U.S. Fixed Income: Q4 2023 Update

The 4th quarter Treasury and spread rally rescued the broad fixed income market from another year of negative or barely positive (depending on sector) returns. In traditional bond market fashion, however, we find much to worry about with stretched valuations in most of the spread sectors and an uncertain path forward for the economy and interest rates.

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